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From my post at GameSpot on May 12th... This year at E3, there have been quite literally hundreds of new games coming out from a variety of developers/publishers ranging from the small indie houses (the few that are left) to the multi-hundred-million dollar juggernauts like Electronic Arts. It is an adrenaline pumped, glee-filled experience, to be sure, to be able to walk these halls, to touch and to play, and to gaze at these many multi-colored gaming experiences of light and sound, many of which are to be released in the next year. The Electronic Entertainment Expo is, to be sure, the true mecca of the American video gamer, no matter what platform you prefer. Every year, we see greater feats of video wizardry, interactive wonderscapes and metaverses of electronic fantasy, military cunning, strategic warfare, intellegent puzzlery, and more roles to play than "Catch Me If You Can" could ever dream of. So, too, has the cost of game development risen. In the United States, in particular, the expectations of the common gamer have become to such a point that the production values of the latest games have been accomplished by exponentially expansive budgets over the last few years. It has gotten to the point in recent years that the number of games to be sold must reach increasing heights to break even, let along make a profit. For this reason, many publishers have played it safer and safer, sticking to well-trod genres of military action, the stale paths of plethoras of engines and gameplay mechanics which have gone before any particular title. I write this open letter to the gaming community to make one point: the piracy that allows you to get your game for free is what is keeping the innovation low in our community. I spent a few minutes recently with a piece of software called Shareaza, an open source multi-network peer to peer trading application. Within seconds, I was connected to a server with more than 500k connections on the edonkey network, a couple of hubs with a total of 600 or so nodes on gnutella 2, and a few hundred nodes on the gnutella 1 network. I then took a few minutes to search for some of the games I have bought or played recently and liked. Rainbow Six Lockdown? 1124 or so sources availible. TOCA 3 Race Driver? 2200 sources availible. Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter? 1780 sources availible. I figured I would look for a few older games. Far Cry? 610 sources availible. Even a small indie game like One Must Fall: Battlegrounds (the game Diversions Entertainment released) has more than 780 sources availible right now at 1348 MDT this afternoon (May 12). Lets do some math together. When it comes to development, assumptions are the root of all evil, it is said, but we are forced to make some here. Lets pretend just for a moment that 40% of those sources of each p2p availible game are potential players that would purchase that game if it were the ONLY way to get it (legally or illegally). Lets further pretend that the current revenue margin on each of these games were you to buy it at retail right now online would be 30% of gross sales to make it back to the developer. Its a reasonable figure for new releases, some are higher, some are lower. In the case of OMF:BG were you to purchase it right now through the developer's store, almost 100% would make it to the developer. I figure 30% is fair in the industry as it is: Now, obviously these numbers are very general and im not a certified statician. But it gives you a rough idea what the POSSIBLE lost revenue is in real financial numbers for the search of one person, one time, during non-peak middle-of-the day hours on P2P networks. Multiply these numbers by the number of availible networks my searches didnt scan, the number of servers on these networks my searches didnt scan, the number of other copy methods, and especially for the older games, remember that there have been thousands and thousands of downloads when these games were newer and at higher price points. One Must Fall: Battlegrounds was released, cracked, 2 days before it ever was shipped to stores. (Not even shipped!) My main point is this: why would developers want to innovate? Why would publishers want to take risks? Why should these companies, whose main business is to make money either for thier owners or shareholders, work to provide newer, better, more interesting games if such large amounts of money are being thrown away daily by those who choose to download games instead of buying them? I am a gamer myself and I have been in web-based communities long enough to know that gamers have a personal sense of entitlement on this subject. Yes, game prices are too high, agreed. Production value expectations are too high, every new artist, every new programmer raises the eventual price of the game and the number of copies it needs to sell to be successful. No, you arent entitled to the game. You have no "right" to play the game. If I were to pay to have some famous painter paint a picture just for me, even though the price were high for me, do you have an inherent right to make copies of that picture so that you can look at it when you want to? Of course not, thats absurd. You want more and better games? You want to ensure that wonderful events like E3 continue into the next decade? You want to deal with less hassle over copy protection? Think about these things next time you fire up that P2P client. I am a gamer too, I cant afford to go out and buy every game I want. I have to prioritize my purchase based on those games which I feel have the best potential to spark my interest, and those developers which have proven they can deliver a fun quality product. Its a reward system for developers to develop great games. Piracy strips it down, making it harder for these things to happen in our industry. The Small Print: ** This game is self published by Codemasters and the revenue percentages off of a new purchase would ostensibly be higher than for a simple developer/publisher relationship. This figure does not reflect that difference. *** This game is no longer widely availible and is only availible via the developer's website at www.diversionspub.com so the prices and figures reflect those numbers, further because this game is no longer widely availible, it is unlikely it would have as high an actual-sales rate as that assumed. This forum post is my opinion only, and does not reflect the feelings of Gamespot, its editors, nor any company which I currently or have previously worked for.
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